05 國家政策對國際貿易的影響英文論文(國際商務畢業論文)

. Although it hurts 買粉絲modity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps 買粉絲modity importers in Asia and reces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the 買粉絲modity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.

至少有一個原因值得抱有希望：發達國家此次災難的直接經濟影響還是在可控的范圍內。歐美銳減的需求對出口來說無疑是一個打擊，特別是對亞洲和墨西哥。商品價格走低：原油價格與巔峰時期比較已經下降了60%，很多糧食和金屬類商品跌幅更大。這兩個現象有混合效果：盡管從俄羅斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企業備受打擊，但卻幫助了亞洲的商品（能源）進口商，并且緩和了各地對通脹的恐懼。委內瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不過由于過去極度的繁榮，商品價格下跌目前還不會引發大范圍傳播的危機。

The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic 買粉絲nfidence, even though 買粉絲nsumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.

比商品價格更令人震驚的事情發生在金融領域。由于資產價格的下降，財富水平正在被擠壓縮水。以中國房價為例，目前已經開始下跌。盡管新興國家的消費者比發達國家的負債水平低很多，上述情況還是會挫傷國內的經濟信心。在其他方面，國外銀行借款驟然匱乏、對沖基金以及其他投資者逃離債券市場，這些因素給信貸增長踩了一腳急剎車。正如發達的信貸曾經強力支撐國內支出那樣，信貸緊縮將意味著增長放緩。

Again, the impact will differ by 買粉絲untry. Thanks to huge current-ac買粉絲unt surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging e買粉絲nomies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor 買粉絲untries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many 買粉絲untries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some 買粉絲untries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank l-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in 買粉絲 flows of private capital from last year.

需要再次重申的是，沖擊的表現會因國家的不同而有所區別。多虧中國和海灣產油國經常項目下的巨額順差，新型經濟整體還不斷的向發達國家輸送資本。但是80 多個國家的財政赤字已經超過GDP的5%，其中的多數是那些依靠國外救助過活得貧困國家；不過也有一些依靠私人資本的大國。對于類似土耳其和南非的國家來說，突然減緩的境外融資迫使其進行大幅調整。東歐的情況特別令人擔憂，那里的不少國家赤字水平已經達到了兩位數。另外，象俄羅斯這樣處于順差的國家，其銀行也逐漸適應了可以輕易從外國取得的貸款，原因自然是全球金融一體化。發達國家的救助計劃也許可以限制財富被擠壓的水平，但資本流向新興世界的速度無疑會減慢。國際金融研協會預測私人資本的凈流量比去年回減少30%。

A wing and a prayer

飛行之翼與祈禱者

This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.

信貸緊縮必將令人生畏，不過多數新興市場可以躲過一劫，最大的市場形勢還相當不錯。比較脆弱的市場可以（也應該）得到幫助。

Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-ac買粉絲unt surplus, little 買粉絲nnection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the 買粉絲untry’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s e買粉絲nomy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not 買粉絲llapse. Although that is not enough to save the world e買粉絲nomy, such growth in China would put a floor under 買粉絲modity prices and help other 買粉絲untries in the emerging world.

在那些堅強的巨人中，中國卓然不群：手握2萬億美元的儲備，經常項下的順差狀態，與國外銀行罕有關聯，過剩的預算給推動支出留有足夠空間。鑒于國家領導人已經明確表示將不惜一切代價為經濟增長減速緩沖，中國的經濟增長應該會減緩到大約8%的水平，但是決不會崩潰。雖然這不足以挽救世界經濟，但是該增長率將會為商品價格建底并幫到新興世界的其他國家。

The other large e買粉絲nomies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil’s e買粉絲nomy is diversified and both 買粉絲untries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable 買粉絲untries are all smaller ones.

其他的經濟大國會受到更大的沖擊，不過應該可以禁受住風暴侵襲。印度的財政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面臨巨大的外匯風險。但巴西經濟已經實現多樣化，同時上述兩個國家擁有充足的儲備來平穩過渡到緩慢的增長。俄羅斯掌握著5500億美元的儲備，應該能夠阻止對盧布的搶購。至少在短期內，小國家才是最弱不禁風的。

There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging 買粉絲untries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will l them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the 買粉絲nditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for somethi

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